How have Hillary Clinton's emails impacted the race so far?
By Anthony Salvanto and Kabir Khanna
All year, Hillary Clinton’s numbers on honesty and trustworthiness have been low. Last week in Florida, Fifty-five percent of likely voters thought her emails were just the tip of the iceberg, and 45 percent thought we already knew all there is to know about her past. Voters have consistently told us they don’t think she’s explained it well enough.
This comes as the FBI told members of Congress that it is reviewing more emails related to its investigation of Hillary Clinton.
In Florida, this could be problematic for her, especially given the new emails discovered by the FBI this week. Fifty-five percent of likely voters here think the emails are just the tip of the iceberg, and 45 percent think we already knew all there is to know about her past.
There is defintely a core of people -- most of them Democrats -- who say it’s time to move on. For those who are not voting for her or who are on the fence about her, the question for them is whether her email issue speaks to something that would continue, going forward.
In terms of early voting, we’re up to 17.1 million advance votes now reported in, according to the AP/U.S. Elections Project, and there are perhaps another 30 million or more to come.
To sum up the early voting so far, there are promising signs for Hillary Clinton in party registration and good signs for Donald Trump in age of voters -- early returns favor older voters but not yet in new voters.
In Georgia, Hillary Clinton’s chances of pulling off an upset win depend on strong turnout from African American voters, and the ballots returned so far are tracking with what she’d ultimately need. We estimate 30 percent of the early vote in has come from black voters, and it is likely that at least 30 percent of the final electorate here would need to be African American for Clinton to win.
There are, however, many more votes left to come in order to keep up this pace. Fifteen percent of all African Americans on the registration rolls have returned ballots so far, according to data as of Thursday (all data cited is from CBS News’ analysis of L2 Votermapping records.
In Colorado, where Clinton has shown slight polling leads, so far, registered Democrats have the edge, 39 percent to 35 percent.
Here, as in other states examined, we see little evidence yet of a surge in new voters for the Republicans. Among the current voters who did not take part in the 2012 presidential election in Colorado, registration is running 36 percent to 28 percent Democratic. Overall, party registration in the state runs about even.
The overall impact of first-time voters in the state is relatively small so far. Early voters tend to be habitual voters who’ve voted before, and who have voted early in prior elections, too. In Colorado, 85 percent of early voters we analyzed voted in the 2012 presidential election. Seventy-six percent of them did so via early voting.
In Florida, party registration has drawn even between Democrats and Republicans now; Republicans had a slight edge two days ago.
In Iowa, returned ballots are running much more toward Democratic registration: 45 percent are registered Democrats, 34 percent are registered Republicans. But they are also older, with three-quarters coming from voters over 50.
Iowa’s new presidential election participants – those who show no record of voting in the state in either 2012 or 2008 – are (unsurprisingly) much younger, and their ballots are running 40 percent to 28 percent for Democratic registrants.